TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian stocks and the pound gained on Tuesday as investors held out hope that Britain still had a chance of avoiding a messy exit from the European Union at key negotiations this week.
A man walks past in front of a stock quotation board showing the price of the SoftBank Corp. on the Tokyo Stock Exchange outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan December 19, 2018. REUTERS/Issei Kato
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.1%. Australian shares were up 0.17%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index .N225 was up 1.86%.
The pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures STXEc1 rose 0.23%, German DAX futures FDXc1 were 0.16% higher, while FTSE futures FFIc1 were up 0.12%.
The pound rose against the dollar and the euro, reflecting the cautious optimism about talks between Britain and the EU.
Capping broader gains in equities, however, was a perceived lack of progress coming out of U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Reports of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China last week had earlier cheered markets but the dearth of details around the agreement has since curbed this enthusiasm with oil prices extending declines, Chinese stocks weaker and the safe-haven yen holding gains versus dollar.
The focus has now shifted to Europe where officials from Britain and the EU will meet at a make-or-break summit on Thursday and Friday that will determine whether or not Britain is headed for a so-called no-deal Brexit.
“Given the parliamentary intervention, I would say the chance of a no-deal Brexit is around 10% to 20%,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.
“If there is a deal, sterling would rally and risk assets would rally, but the reaction could be limited to a day.”
U.S. stock futures ESc1 rose 0.27% on Tuesday in Asia after the S&P 500 ended 0.14% lower.
Traders, however, cautioned that sentiment remains fragile because the outcome of Brexit talks is far from certain and the U.S.-China trade war remains a risk to global growth.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to strike an exit deal at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday to allow an orderly departure on Oct. 31.
The main sticking point remains the border between EU member Ireland and Northern Ireland, which belongs to the UK. Some EU politicians have expressed guarded optimism that a deal can be reached.
However, diplomats from the EU have indicated they are pessimistic about Johnson’s proposed solution for the border and want more concessions.
In the currency market, sterling GBP=D3 rose 0.17% to $1.2632, approaching a three-month high of $1.2708. The pound EURGBP=D3 also rose around 0.18% to 87.34 pence per euro.
The yen JPY=EBS, often considered a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty, held steady at 108.33 versus the dollar.
China’s trade-war scorecard here
A perceived lack of progress in resolving a prolonged trade row between the United States and China also weighed on investor confidence.
Chinese stocks .CSI300 fell 0.44% on Tuesday, led by declines in the technology sector. In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS traded at 7.0740 per dollar, pulling back from a two-month high reached on Monday.
The United States agreed to delay an Oct. 15 increase in tariffs on Chinese goods while Beijing said it would buy as much as $50 billion of U.S. agricultural products after tense negotiations last week.
However, Washington has left in place tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods.
Trade experts and China market analysts say chances are high that Washington and Beijing will fail to agree on any specifics – as happened in May – in time for a mid-November meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
U.S. crude CLc1 fell 0.71% to $53.21 per barrel following a 2% decline overnight due to worries that global energy demand will remain weak.
Brent crude LCOc1 also fell 0.78% to $58.89 per barrel.
By early last week, hedge funds had become the most bearish towards petroleum prices since the start of the year, according to an analysis of position records published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and ICE Futures Europe.